I think tomorrow(Tue) will be huge reckless with real estate. Although after the market ends, there will be Apple Q3 out, and I expect it be VERY VERY high with iPad sale, the real estate crisis stuff will just bring down overall market.
Wednesday is another trouble.
Agreed with this one. jimcramer Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Getting Tomorrow's Headlines Today (Final) http://ow.ly/18cM16
Monday, July 19, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Real Estate. Are we still in crisis?
I remember when I was studying economics in UC Berkeley, professors were telling us, "we are in this real estate crisis for a long term." We are currently in much more serious condition than many people presume, and we won't be able to recover quickly.
Basically, American economy that has been driven 70% by consumer spending were largely depending on availability of credit for the last decade. But it was the very credit that was hurt badly for the user's abuse.
Obama administration provided first-aid kit for housing industry with "socializing" Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. When these two mortgage giants fell, a Wells Fargo banker I talked with said FNM would be in much more serious condition than its fellow FRE because it was more deeply involved in Washington Mutual fall-out.
(If you want to read more about $FRE, and $FNM, search with a term "FRE" on the top of this blog.)
At that time, I invested in FRE at $1 and experienced very scary days as it went all the way down to $0.35 per share. Then, with announcement of Fed disallowing short-sale in financial stocks, FRE started to boost up all the way to $3/share. It was handsome profit indeed.
The chance arrived once again.
FRE and FNM have been recovering well since the incident.
But with the new housing data announced this week, both firms got TANKED, and the representatives of FRE said it would withdraw from NYSE.
This is over 2Billion dollars worth nation's largest mortgage giants we are talking about.
It was so large, government had to step in providing bunch of money to just keep it alive; each firm lost ~1 B in 2009 in operation.
Overall market has not been affected from this yet, but I see it soon will be.
When the next bank's Quarter data comes out, we will have mixed feelings.
Gold Future is higher than ever after all.
(why buy gold if you are confident in dollars? Gold soars because we can't trust dollars.)
Basically, American economy that has been driven 70% by consumer spending were largely depending on availability of credit for the last decade. But it was the very credit that was hurt badly for the user's abuse.
Obama administration provided first-aid kit for housing industry with "socializing" Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. When these two mortgage giants fell, a Wells Fargo banker I talked with said FNM would be in much more serious condition than its fellow FRE because it was more deeply involved in Washington Mutual fall-out.
(If you want to read more about $FRE, and $FNM, search with a term "FRE" on the top of this blog.)
At that time, I invested in FRE at $1 and experienced very scary days as it went all the way down to $0.35 per share. Then, with announcement of Fed disallowing short-sale in financial stocks, FRE started to boost up all the way to $3/share. It was handsome profit indeed.
The chance arrived once again.
FRE and FNM have been recovering well since the incident.
But with the new housing data announced this week, both firms got TANKED, and the representatives of FRE said it would withdraw from NYSE.
This is over 2Billion dollars worth nation's largest mortgage giants we are talking about.
It was so large, government had to step in providing bunch of money to just keep it alive; each firm lost ~1 B in 2009 in operation.
Overall market has not been affected from this yet, but I see it soon will be.
When the next bank's Quarter data comes out, we will have mixed feelings.
Gold Future is higher than ever after all.
(why buy gold if you are confident in dollars? Gold soars because we can't trust dollars.)
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Acquisition, Why?
From the day one of my speculation experience in stock market, I was fond of acquisition speculation.
I made my portfolio double in the very first month of my stock investment/speculation, because the company I invested, MedImmune, got acquired.
Then, within 3 months, my portfolio tripled. What I needed was confidence, thorough analysis, and common sense.
Now, I look at some of the acquisition opportunity I missed.
1. Oakley: Oakley (OO) was merged with Luxottica (LUX, it's direct competitor), Italian company, which holds Ray-Ban, Persol, and Vogue, in 2007.
I was watching Oakley jumping over 25% up in one day (I believe it was like 40% rather). Oakley was in my watch-list and was just shocked....I was stunned and tried to figure out why.
I think it was the luxury Sunglasses business of Oakley that Luxottica wanted.
The M&A Researcher of Seeking Alpha says, "Luxottica boast being a major player in the low- to mid-range product niche, where Oakley's products are mostly in the higher range in terms of cost." http://seekingalpha.com/article/40333-oakley-luxottica-group-a-merger-of-enemies
2. Wendy's: Damn, this merger really hurt me. I lost so much money on this. I was thinking it would be bought out by some other company, such as, Carl's Jr goup. The major stakeholder, the founder's family, did not want to sell the company to some others, and also when they opened the book for the show, many interested groups shunned away.
But I see much improvement in operation after the merger. I mean as a regular customer of Wendy's I can literally see they treat their customers much more nicely and the food is fresher than ever.
3. Genentech(DNA): 46.8B acquisition by Roche. I was lucky to be a shareholder of DNA and got 25% boost with this acquisition. I was mainly holding DNA because the company was very strong and was influenced less by the overall market. The market was very bad and most companies were going down. DNA was at least staying still and was making 0.5% up /day on average. Then, bam! Roche buyout DNA. I was thinking Roche would buy some company during this tough season when small companies are having tougher time because of small in cash (as I wrote in the past, cash works as a cushion during the tough period).
4. Northwest Airline. I knew there would be mergers in airline industry. There was so much talk with CAL and UAUA also. I was holding NWA and UAUA (heavier on NWA). Then I got sick of waiting and pulled out. Then, Boom!, DAL offered for an acquisition. Sigh, I wish I had more money so diversify the portfolio at that time. I just had to change my position to DNDN.
5. Samsung electronics and SanDisk: This did not happen, but why Samsung was interested in SanDisk? It's damn electronic company on SDcard. I think of it, it could be strategic buyout by Samsung for its cell phone business. Cell phone is where the growth is (MOBILE ROCKS!). And with more functionality and processes on the phone, it is more becoming like "Mobile personal computer" This is why memory and battery life becomes the key in the mobile business. And this is why app companies like "DropBox" could be funded millions of dollars by Sequoyia
(btw, this slide is really awesome, by Drew, my mentor, http://www.slideshare.net/gueste94e4c/dropbox-startup-lessons-learned-3836587
6. Cisco on Filp: I was like What? over 500 million for this small portable camera? I can't believe it! Our cell phones are having strong enough video camera capability, why the hell would I carry that one? Turned out. NO! camera is camera, cell phone is cell phone.
(Biggest reason. Again, damn battery)
But why Cisco? Why cisco which is in wireless home/business communication infrastructure business wants to acquire Flip? Oh, the company saw the growth of journalism, not only via typed words but also via video. YouTube became the second (now third) most visited site and there were more and more people demanded small, portable, lasting long, HQ video camera.
And when they upload the video, what they use? Cisco's Linksys. BAM!
Something hit my brain. Cisco is planning to make wi-fi/3G portable camcorder with Flip.
oh man, that will change the whole journalism world.
I made my portfolio double in the very first month of my stock investment/speculation, because the company I invested, MedImmune, got acquired.
Then, within 3 months, my portfolio tripled. What I needed was confidence, thorough analysis, and common sense.
Now, I look at some of the acquisition opportunity I missed.
1. Oakley: Oakley (OO) was merged with Luxottica (LUX, it's direct competitor), Italian company, which holds Ray-Ban, Persol, and Vogue, in 2007.
I was watching Oakley jumping over 25% up in one day (I believe it was like 40% rather). Oakley was in my watch-list and was just shocked....I was stunned and tried to figure out why.
I think it was the luxury Sunglasses business of Oakley that Luxottica wanted.
The M&A Researcher of Seeking Alpha says, "Luxottica boast being a major player in the low- to mid-range product niche, where Oakley's products are mostly in the higher range in terms of cost." http://seekingalpha.com/article/40333-oakley-luxottica-group-a-merger-of-enemies
2. Wendy's: Damn, this merger really hurt me. I lost so much money on this. I was thinking it would be bought out by some other company, such as, Carl's Jr goup. The major stakeholder, the founder's family, did not want to sell the company to some others, and also when they opened the book for the show, many interested groups shunned away.
But I see much improvement in operation after the merger. I mean as a regular customer of Wendy's I can literally see they treat their customers much more nicely and the food is fresher than ever.
3. Genentech(DNA): 46.8B acquisition by Roche. I was lucky to be a shareholder of DNA and got 25% boost with this acquisition. I was mainly holding DNA because the company was very strong and was influenced less by the overall market. The market was very bad and most companies were going down. DNA was at least staying still and was making 0.5% up /day on average. Then, bam! Roche buyout DNA. I was thinking Roche would buy some company during this tough season when small companies are having tougher time because of small in cash (as I wrote in the past, cash works as a cushion during the tough period).
4. Northwest Airline. I knew there would be mergers in airline industry. There was so much talk with CAL and UAUA also. I was holding NWA and UAUA (heavier on NWA). Then I got sick of waiting and pulled out. Then, Boom!, DAL offered for an acquisition. Sigh, I wish I had more money so diversify the portfolio at that time. I just had to change my position to DNDN.
5. Samsung electronics and SanDisk: This did not happen, but why Samsung was interested in SanDisk? It's damn electronic company on SDcard. I think of it, it could be strategic buyout by Samsung for its cell phone business. Cell phone is where the growth is (MOBILE ROCKS!). And with more functionality and processes on the phone, it is more becoming like "Mobile personal computer" This is why memory and battery life becomes the key in the mobile business. And this is why app companies like "DropBox" could be funded millions of dollars by Sequoyia
(btw, this slide is really awesome, by Drew, my mentor, http://www.slideshare.net/gueste94e4c/dropbox-startup-lessons-learned-3836587
6. Cisco on Filp: I was like What? over 500 million for this small portable camera? I can't believe it! Our cell phones are having strong enough video camera capability, why the hell would I carry that one? Turned out. NO! camera is camera, cell phone is cell phone.
(Biggest reason. Again, damn battery)
But why Cisco? Why cisco which is in wireless home/business communication infrastructure business wants to acquire Flip? Oh, the company saw the growth of journalism, not only via typed words but also via video. YouTube became the second (now third) most visited site and there were more and more people demanded small, portable, lasting long, HQ video camera.
And when they upload the video, what they use? Cisco's Linksys. BAM!
Something hit my brain. Cisco is planning to make wi-fi/3G portable camcorder with Flip.
oh man, that will change the whole journalism world.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
America's turning into 3G-Smartphone
With all these new technologies and application platforms allowing new ventures to pop and grow stronger everyday (i.e. FourSquare, Yelp, Zoosk, Dropbox, Loopt), more and more Americans are turning their 2G phones off to get full 3G experience with smartphones.
Whether they are running in Android OS by Google or iPhone by Apple, it is true that the current of wireless-sea has changed 180 degrees. You can see that by new phones made by HTC, Samsung, LG, and many other manufacturers. The new phones are either emphasizing social web uses on the phone or web-surfing capability.
These 3G internet access through wireless network actually is a big hassle for network providers like AT&T and Verizon. (take those Sprint out, I do not like their stupid move to chase MetroPCS anyway. That was T-Mobile's job, not Sprint's)
Now, then, with increase in number of 3G-smartphone users, what companies will be gaining more profit, or market growth opportunity?
1. American Tower Corp (AMT): I mentioned this company long ago to use it as a "blue-chip" in your portfolio. This company dominates cell tower ownership in US. And because there's always flowing demand of cell tower uses by network providers, this company do not really get affected by overall market turmoil either. People use cell phones in recession anyway.
2. CommScope (CTV): CTV is the largest maker of Antennas for cell towers. It uses up-to-date technology to maximize utilization of each cell towers and I believe their sales will grow in the same direction with number of 3G smartphone users. According to FastMoney by CNBC, this company also has India exposure, which the subscriber of cell phone is increasing avg 85% yearly.
These are two major players behind.
Well, I have studied American Tower for about a year and half now and just started on CTV.
Whether they are running in Android OS by Google or iPhone by Apple, it is true that the current of wireless-sea has changed 180 degrees. You can see that by new phones made by HTC, Samsung, LG, and many other manufacturers. The new phones are either emphasizing social web uses on the phone or web-surfing capability.
These 3G internet access through wireless network actually is a big hassle for network providers like AT&T and Verizon. (take those Sprint out, I do not like their stupid move to chase MetroPCS anyway. That was T-Mobile's job, not Sprint's)
Now, then, with increase in number of 3G-smartphone users, what companies will be gaining more profit, or market growth opportunity?
1. American Tower Corp (AMT): I mentioned this company long ago to use it as a "blue-chip" in your portfolio. This company dominates cell tower ownership in US. And because there's always flowing demand of cell tower uses by network providers, this company do not really get affected by overall market turmoil either. People use cell phones in recession anyway.
2. CommScope (CTV): CTV is the largest maker of Antennas for cell towers. It uses up-to-date technology to maximize utilization of each cell towers and I believe their sales will grow in the same direction with number of 3G smartphone users. According to FastMoney by CNBC, this company also has India exposure, which the subscriber of cell phone is increasing avg 85% yearly.
These are two major players behind.
Well, I have studied American Tower for about a year and half now and just started on CTV.
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