I believe Dendreon's Provenge will very likely be passed by FDA.
This is what I predict:Currently, DNDN (that's stock ticket of Dendreon) is traded around 39/share, overall worth 5.2Billion dollar (market cap).
The insiders already heavily invested and showed much confidence on approval, brought in former executives of Genetech (which got acquired by Roche, I was shareholder of Genetech and made awesome profit at M&A), built many factories in New Jersey, got European patent approved, etc.
From my research, DNDN's first year sales will be 1 billion, second year will be 1.5 billion, by fifth year, it will reach 2 billion.
With this assumption, DNDN will (1) most likely worth 10 Billion as soon as FDA approves commercial uses of Provenge, (2) possibly get acquired by bigger pharma companies.
Now, there are anaylists supporting DNDN.JP Morgan raised the target of DNDN to 40 when it was still 25. Now Analysts (i.e. http://www.twst.com/yagoo/abe800.html) agrees also.Analysts are promoters. They work for companis that already hold big position in the company. Which means they also think it will get commercialized. FDA is expected to response before/by May, 2010
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-13/buy-dendreon-calls-before-fda-decision-jpmorgan-says-update1-.html
