Bargain stocks I watch these days:
MOT ( Motorola ): I believe this stock is worth at least 9 dollars per share. With upcoming Q1 on April 29th, I expect the earning to be positive and beats the analyst's expectation. There has been so many good stories about Droid (Motorola Android smart phone in Verizon) and it has been beating the sales of other smartphones in $VZ (Verizon).
Unlike Apple, Google still does not have much power in wireless industry. I believe I mentioned this in a former blog, but here you go again.
In AT&T's world, Apple generates extra revenue from app sales; 30% of every app sales goes to $AAPL and 70% goes to the App developer. In Verizon's world, Verizon generates 30% of every app sales and App developers gets 70%. No profit for Google.
What do you think about Droid? Is Google logo on top or Motorola? Hmmmm You see who's more powerful in this, retail price $400, smartphone.
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U.S. Global Investors (GROW): CEO of this company buys small amount but frequently whenever it goes lower than 10 dollars per share. Share price has some relationship with crude oil price.
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Citigroup (C): Government announced to chunk out its shares, which is good thing.
Not only that is the sign of solid stability in Citigroup, but it means that company will now be able to focus on the retained earning for shareholder's benefit.
With government, the company always has to deal with debt (liability) first, so there is a very rare occassion in reinvestment.
Now Citigroup is around 4.6 (I jumped in 3.4 as you can read from my former blog post) now and I expect it to go higher than 5.0 soon.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Dendreon, Long time coming.
I believe Dendreon's Provenge will very likely be passed by FDA.
This is what I predict:Currently, DNDN (that's stock ticket of Dendreon) is traded around 39/share, overall worth 5.2Billion dollar (market cap).
The insiders already heavily invested and showed much confidence on approval, brought in former executives of Genetech (which got acquired by Roche, I was shareholder of Genetech and made awesome profit at M&A), built many factories in New Jersey, got European patent approved, etc.
From my research, DNDN's first year sales will be 1 billion, second year will be 1.5 billion, by fifth year, it will reach 2 billion.
With this assumption, DNDN will (1) most likely worth 10 Billion as soon as FDA approves commercial uses of Provenge, (2) possibly get acquired by bigger pharma companies.
Now, there are anaylists supporting DNDN.JP Morgan raised the target of DNDN to 40 when it was still 25. Now Analysts (i.e. http://www.twst.com/yagoo/abe800.html) agrees also.Analysts are promoters. They work for companis that already hold big position in the company. Which means they also think it will get commercialized. FDA is expected to response before/by May, 2010
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-13/buy-dendreon-calls-before-fda-decision-jpmorgan-says-update1-.html
This is what I predict:Currently, DNDN (that's stock ticket of Dendreon) is traded around 39/share, overall worth 5.2Billion dollar (market cap).
The insiders already heavily invested and showed much confidence on approval, brought in former executives of Genetech (which got acquired by Roche, I was shareholder of Genetech and made awesome profit at M&A), built many factories in New Jersey, got European patent approved, etc.
From my research, DNDN's first year sales will be 1 billion, second year will be 1.5 billion, by fifth year, it will reach 2 billion.
With this assumption, DNDN will (1) most likely worth 10 Billion as soon as FDA approves commercial uses of Provenge, (2) possibly get acquired by bigger pharma companies.
Now, there are anaylists supporting DNDN.JP Morgan raised the target of DNDN to 40 when it was still 25. Now Analysts (i.e. http://www.twst.com/yagoo/abe800.html) agrees also.Analysts are promoters. They work for companis that already hold big position in the company. Which means they also think it will get commercialized. FDA is expected to response before/by May, 2010
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-13/buy-dendreon-calls-before-fda-decision-jpmorgan-says-update1-.html
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